Vasas Femina W 3–1 Arad W: Result & Stats

Vasas Femina W

FT

3 – 1

Arad W

10/16/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 5Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Vasas Femina W35%

×Draw21%

Arad W45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasas Femina WExpected goals in this matchArad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.17

Vasas Femina W

1.90

Arad W

2.17

Arad W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 32 away

1.73

creates per match

2.19

2.16

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Vasas Femina W

1.73

Arad W

2.19

allows per match

Vasas Femina W

2.16

Arad W

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Arad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas Femina W ↓

Arad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Vasas Femina W or draw

55%

Vasas Femina W or Arad W

79%

Draw or Arad W

65%

Winning margin

Vasas Femina W wins by 2+

18%

Arad W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Vasas Femina W 1+ goals

85%

Vasas Femina W 2+ goals

56%

Vasas Femina W 3+ goals

29%

Arad W 1+ goals

89%

Arad W 2+ goals

64%

Arad W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)

44%

Arad W (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas Femina W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.16 · 56 matches

Arad W away — creates 2.19, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas Femina W attack 1.73 + Arad W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.90

Arad W attack 2.19 + Vasas Femina W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vasas Femina W scores more

35%

level

21%

Arad W scores more

45%

Arad W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff