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Vasalund vs Stocksund — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vasalund
Vasalund
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stocksund
Stocksund
2/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vasalund56%
×Draw20%
Stocksund25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasalund
2.35
Stocksund
1.52

Vasalund creates 55% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vasalund
1.88
Stocksund
1.67

allows per match

Vasalund
1.38
Stocksund
2.83

finishing

Vasalund+0.00on par
Stocksund+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasalund ↓

Stocksund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Vasalund or draw
75%
Vasalund or Stocksund
80%
Draw or Stocksund
44%

Winning margin

Vasalund wins by 2+
35%
Stocksund wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vasalund 1+ goals
90%
Vasalund 2+ goals
68%
Vasalund 3+ goals
41%
Stocksund 1+ goals
78%
Stocksund 2+ goals
45%
Stocksund 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vasalund (draw refunded)
69%
Stocksund (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasalund at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Stocksund away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasalund attack 1.88 + Stocksund defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.35

Stocksund attack 1.67 + Vasalund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vasalund scores more
56%
level
20%
Stocksund scores more
25%

Vasalund at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vasalund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasalund vs Stocksund

Vasalund beat Stocksund 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 15, 2026.