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Vasalund vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Vasalund
Vasalund
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
10/19/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 27Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Vasalund55%
×Draw20%
AFC Eskilstuna25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasalund
2.25
AFC Eskilstuna
1.46

Vasalund creates 54% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 37 away

creates per match

Vasalund
2.13
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Vasalund
1.16
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Vasalund+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasalund ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vasalund or draw
75%
Vasalund or AFC Eskilstuna
80%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
45%

Winning margin

Vasalund wins by 2+
34%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vasalund 1+ goals
89%
Vasalund 2+ goals
65%
Vasalund 3+ goals
39%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
77%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
43%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vasalund (draw refunded)
69%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasalund at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasalund attack 2.13 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.25

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Vasalund defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vasalund scores more
55%
level
20%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
25%

Vasalund at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vasalund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Vasalund 4–2 AFC Eskilstuna

Vasalund beat AFC Eskilstuna 4-2 in Ettan - Norra on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.