Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Varzim vs Vilafranquense — Segunda Liga 2018

Varzim
Varzim
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
1/3/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 14Estádio Varzim Sport Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Varzim39%
×Draw28%
Vilafranquense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varzim
1.22
Vilafranquense
1.09

Varzim creates 12% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 63 away

creates per match

Varzim
0.95
Vilafranquense
1.02

allows per match

Varzim
1.17
Vilafranquense
1.49

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par
Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Vilafranquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Varzim or draw
67%
Varzim or Vilafranquense
72%
Draw or Vilafranquense
61%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+
17%
Vilafranquense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals
70%
Varzim 2+ goals
34%
Varzim 3+ goals
12%
Vilafranquense 1+ goals
66%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
30%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)
54%
Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.17 · 63 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 0.95 + Vilafranquense defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.22

Vilafranquense attack 1.02 + Varzim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Varzim scores more
39%
level
28%
Vilafranquense scores more
33%

Varzim at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Varzim 1–1 Vilafranquense

Varzim and Vilafranquense drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Varzim Sport Club in Póvoa de Varzim.