Varzim 0–1 Montalegre: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Varzim

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Montalegre

4/7/2023

Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 2Estádio Varzim Sport Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Varzim50%

×Draw25%

Montalegre25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarzimExpected goals in this matchMontalegre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.05

Varzim

1.61

Montalegre

1.05

Varzim creates 53% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 28 away

1.52

creates per match

1.18

0.92

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Varzim

1.52

Montalegre

1.18

allows per match

Varzim

0.92

Montalegre

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par

Montalegre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Montalegre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Varzim or draw

75%

Varzim or Montalegre

75%

Draw or Montalegre

50%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+

26%

Montalegre wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals

80%

Varzim 2+ goals

48%

Varzim 3+ goals

22%

Montalegre 1+ goals

65%

Montalegre 2+ goals

28%

Montalegre 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)

67%

Montalegre (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

Montalegre away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 1.52 + Montalegre defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Montalegre attack 1.18 + Varzim defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Varzim scores more

50%

level

25%

Montalegre scores more

25%

Varzim at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff