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Varzim vs Ferreiras — Taça de Portugal 2018

Varzim
Varzim
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ferreiras
Ferreiras
9/22/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Varzim Sport Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Varzim65%
×Draw26%
Ferreiras9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varzim
1.43
Ferreiras
0.34

Varzim creates 321% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Varzim
1.11
Ferreiras
0.25

allows per match

Varzim
0.44
Ferreiras
1.75

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par
Ferreiras+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Ferreiras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Varzim or draw
91%
Varzim or Ferreiras
74%
Draw or Ferreiras
35%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+
34%
Ferreiras wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals
76%
Varzim 2+ goals
42%
Varzim 3+ goals
17%
Ferreiras 1+ goals
29%
Ferreiras 2+ goals
5%
Ferreiras 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)
88%
Ferreiras (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Ferreiras away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 1.11 + Ferreiras defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ferreiras attack 0.25 + Varzim defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Varzim scores more
65%
level
26%
Ferreiras scores more
9%

Varzim at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varzim vs Ferreiras

Varzim beat Ferreiras 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Varzim Sport Club in Póvoa de Varzim.