Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Varzim vs Feirense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Varzim
Varzim
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Feirense
Feirense
10/1/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal Prof. Dr. José Vieira de Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Varzim37%
×Draw30%
Feirense34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varzim
1.10
Feirense
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Varzim
1.11
Feirense
1.64

allows per match

Varzim
0.44
Feirense
1.09

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Varzim or draw
66%
Varzim or Feirense
70%
Draw or Feirense
63%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+
15%
Feirense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals
67%
Varzim 2+ goals
30%
Varzim 3+ goals
10%
Feirense 1+ goals
65%
Feirense 2+ goals
28%
Feirense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)
52%
Feirense (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 1.11 + Feirense defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Feirense attack 1.64 + Varzim defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Varzim scores more
37%
level
30%
Feirense scores more
34%

Varzim at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Varzim 1–0 Feirense

Varzim beat Feirense 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prof. Dr. José Vieira de Carvalho in Maia.