Varzim 1–0 Estoril: Result & Stats

Varzim

FT

1 – 0

Estoril

L. Ruiz 70' (pen)

10/20/2019

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Varzim Sport Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Varzim29%

×Draw28%

Estoril43%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarzimExpected goals in this matchEstoril

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.30

Varzim

1.02

Estoril

1.30

Estoril creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.11

creates per match

2.17

0.44

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Varzim

1.11

Estoril

2.17

allows per match

Varzim

0.44

Estoril

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par

Estoril+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Estoril →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Varzim or draw

57%

Varzim or Estoril

72%

Draw or Estoril

71%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+

11%

Estoril wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals

64%

Varzim 2+ goals

27%

Varzim 3+ goals

8%

Estoril 1+ goals

73%

Estoril 2+ goals

37%

Estoril 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)

40%

Estoril (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Estoril away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 1.11 + Estoril defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Estoril attack 2.17 + Varzim defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Varzim scores more

29%

level

28%

Estoril scores more

43%

Estoril at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

L. RuizPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff