Varzim 2–1 Cova De Piedade: Result & Stats

Varzim

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cova De Piedade

9/14/2019

Segunda Liga · Round 5Estádio Varzim Sport Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Varzim43%

×Draw28%

Cova De Piedade29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarzimExpected goals in this matchCova De Piedade

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.00

Varzim

1.29

Cova De Piedade

1.00

Varzim creates 29% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 46 away

0.95

creates per match

0.83

1.17

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Varzim

0.95

Cova De Piedade

0.83

allows per match

Varzim

1.17

Cova De Piedade

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Cova De Piedade →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Varzim or draw

71%

Varzim or Cova De Piedade

72%

Draw or Cova De Piedade

57%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+

20%

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals

72%

Varzim 2+ goals

37%

Varzim 3+ goals

14%

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals

63%

Cova De Piedade 2+ goals

26%

Cova De Piedade 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)

60%

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.17 · 63 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 0.95 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Varzim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Varzim scores more

43%

level

28%

Cova De Piedade scores more

29%

Varzim at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff