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Varzim vs Anadia — Liga 3 2021

Varzim
Varzim
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Anadia
Anadia
1/13/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 16Estádio Varzim Sport Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Varzim49%
×Draw26%
Anadia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varzim
1.48
Anadia
0.97

Varzim creates 53% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 56 away

creates per match

Varzim
1.52
Anadia
1.02

allows per match

Varzim
0.92
Anadia
1.45

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par
Anadia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Anadia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Varzim or draw
75%
Varzim or Anadia
74%
Draw or Anadia
51%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+
25%
Anadia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals
77%
Varzim 2+ goals
43%
Varzim 3+ goals
19%
Anadia 1+ goals
62%
Anadia 2+ goals
25%
Anadia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)
66%
Anadia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

Anadia away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 1.52 + Anadia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Anadia attack 1.02 + Varzim defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Varzim scores more
49%
level
26%
Anadia scores more
25%

Varzim at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varzim vs Anadia

Varzim beat Anadia 2-1 in Liga 3 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Varzim Sport Club in Póvoa de Varzim.