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Varzim vs Alverca — Liga 3 2021

Varzim
Varzim
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alverca
Alverca
3/2/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 4Estádio Varzim Sport Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Varzim42%
×Draw27%
Alverca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varzim
1.38
Alverca
1.15

Varzim creates 20% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 45 away

creates per match

Varzim
1.52
Alverca
1.38

allows per match

Varzim
0.92
Alverca
1.24

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Varzim or draw
69%
Varzim or Alverca
73%
Draw or Alverca
58%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+
20%
Alverca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals
75%
Varzim 2+ goals
40%
Varzim 3+ goals
16%
Alverca 1+ goals
68%
Alverca 2+ goals
32%
Alverca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)
57%
Alverca (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 1.52 + Alverca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Alverca attack 1.38 + Varzim defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Varzim scores more
42%
level
27%
Alverca scores more
31%

Varzim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Varzim 0–1 Alverca

Alverca beat Varzim 1-0 in Liga 3 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Varzim Sport Club in Póvoa de Varzim.