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Varnsdorf vs Vlašim — FNL 2019

Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Vlašim
Vlašim
8/2/2023FNLFNL · Round 3Stadion v Kotlině

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Varnsdorf45%
×Draw24%
Vlašim31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varnsdorf
1.65
Vlašim
1.35

Varnsdorf creates 22% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 103 away

creates per match

Varnsdorf
1.72
Vlašim
1.25

allows per match

Varnsdorf
1.45
Vlašim
1.57

finishing

Varnsdorf+0.00on par
Vlašim+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varnsdorf ↓

Vlašim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Varnsdorf or draw
69%
Varnsdorf or Vlašim
76%
Draw or Vlašim
55%

Winning margin

Varnsdorf wins by 2+
23%
Vlašim wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Varnsdorf 1+ goals
81%
Varnsdorf 2+ goals
49%
Varnsdorf 3+ goals
23%
Vlašim 1+ goals
74%
Vlašim 2+ goals
39%
Vlašim 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Varnsdorf (draw refunded)
59%
Vlašim (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varnsdorf at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.45 · 88 matches

Vlašim away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.57 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varnsdorf attack 1.72 + Vlašim defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vlašim attack 1.25 + Varnsdorf defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Varnsdorf scores more
45%
level
24%
Vlašim scores more
31%

Varnsdorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Varnsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Varnsdorf 3–3 Vlašim

Varnsdorf and Vlašim drew 3-3 in FNL on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion v Kotlině in Varnsdorf.