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Varnsdorf vs Slovan Velvary — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
5/6/20263. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 33Mestsky stadion v Kotline

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Varnsdorf38%
×Draw23%
Slovan Velvary39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varnsdorf
1.68
Slovan Velvary
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

creates per match

Varnsdorf
1.69
Slovan Velvary
1.58

allows per match

Varnsdorf
1.81
Slovan Velvary
1.67

finishing

Varnsdorf+0.00on par
Slovan Velvary+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varnsdorf ↓

Slovan Velvary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Varnsdorf or draw
61%
Varnsdorf or Slovan Velvary
77%
Draw or Slovan Velvary
62%

Winning margin

Varnsdorf wins by 2+
19%
Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Varnsdorf 1+ goals
81%
Varnsdorf 2+ goals
50%
Varnsdorf 3+ goals
24%
Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
82%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
51%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Varnsdorf (draw refunded)
49%
Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varnsdorf at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Slovan Velvary away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varnsdorf attack 1.69 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.68

Slovan Velvary attack 1.58 + Varnsdorf defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Varnsdorf scores more
38%
level
23%
Slovan Velvary scores more
39%

Slovan Velvary at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slovan Velvary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Varnsdorf 4–3 Slovan Velvary

Varnsdorf beat Slovan Velvary 4-3 in 3. liga - CFL B on May 6, 2026.

The match was played at Mestsky stadion v Kotline in Varnsdorf.