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Varnsdorf vs Opava — FNL 2019

Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Opava
Opava
7/31/2024FNLFNL · Round 3Stadion v Kotlině

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Varnsdorf45%
×Draw26%
Opava29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varnsdorf
1.46
Opava
1.10

Varnsdorf creates 33% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 75 away

creates per match

Varnsdorf
1.72
Opava
0.75

allows per match

Varnsdorf
1.45
Opava
1.21

finishing

Varnsdorf+0.00on par
Opava+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varnsdorf ↓

Opava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Varnsdorf or draw
71%
Varnsdorf or Opava
74%
Draw or Opava
55%

Winning margin

Varnsdorf wins by 2+
22%
Opava wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Varnsdorf 1+ goals
77%
Varnsdorf 2+ goals
43%
Varnsdorf 3+ goals
18%
Opava 1+ goals
67%
Opava 2+ goals
30%
Opava 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Varnsdorf (draw refunded)
61%
Opava (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varnsdorf at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.45 · 88 matches

Opava away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varnsdorf attack 1.72 + Opava defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Opava attack 0.75 + Varnsdorf defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Varnsdorf scores more
45%
level
26%
Opava scores more
29%

Varnsdorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Varnsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varnsdorf vs Opava

Varnsdorf beat Opava 3-1 in FNL on July 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion v Kotlině in Varnsdorf.