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Varnsdorf vs FK Jablonec — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
1/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3UMT Kotlina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Varnsdorf54%
×Draw20%
FK Jablonec27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varnsdorf
2.33
FK Jablonec
1.61

Varnsdorf creates 45% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Varnsdorf
2.44
FK Jablonec
2.00

allows per match

Varnsdorf
1.22
FK Jablonec
2.22

finishing

Varnsdorf+0.00on par
FK Jablonec+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varnsdorf ↓

FK Jablonec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Varnsdorf or draw
73%
Varnsdorf or FK Jablonec
80%
Draw or FK Jablonec
46%

Winning margin

Varnsdorf wins by 2+
33%
FK Jablonec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Varnsdorf 1+ goals
90%
Varnsdorf 2+ goals
67%
Varnsdorf 3+ goals
41%
FK Jablonec 1+ goals
80%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
48%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Varnsdorf (draw refunded)
67%
FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varnsdorf at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varnsdorf attack 2.44 + FK Jablonec defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.33

FK Jablonec attack 2.00 + Varnsdorf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Varnsdorf scores more
54%
level
20%
FK Jablonec scores more
27%

Varnsdorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Varnsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varnsdorf vs FK Jablonec

Varnsdorf beat FK Jablonec 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at UMT Kotlina in Varnsdorf.