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Varnsdorf vs Bischofswerdaer FV — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
FT
3 – 1
Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3UMT Kotlina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Varnsdorf58%
×Draw19%
Bischofswerdaer FV23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varnsdorf
2.38
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.44

Varnsdorf creates 65% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Varnsdorf
2.44
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.67

allows per match

Varnsdorf
1.22
Bischofswerdaer FV
2.33

finishing

Varnsdorf+0.00on par
Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varnsdorf ↓

Bischofswerdaer FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Varnsdorf or draw
77%
Varnsdorf or Bischofswerdaer FV
81%
Draw or Bischofswerdaer FV
42%

Winning margin

Varnsdorf wins by 2+
37%
Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Varnsdorf 1+ goals
91%
Varnsdorf 2+ goals
68%
Varnsdorf 3+ goals
42%
Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
76%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
42%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Varnsdorf (draw refunded)
72%
Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varnsdorf at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Bischofswerdaer FV away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varnsdorf attack 2.44 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.67 + Varnsdorf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Varnsdorf scores more
58%
level
19%
Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
23%

Varnsdorf at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Varnsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varnsdorf vs Bischofswerdaer FV

Varnsdorf beat Bischofswerdaer FV 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at UMT Kotlina in Varnsdorf.