Varnsdorf 0–6 Arsenal Česká Lípa: Result & Stats

Varnsdorf

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Arsenal Česká Lípa

7/8/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Varnsdorf64%

×Draw17%

Arsenal Česká Lípa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarnsdorfExpected goals in this matchArsenal Česká Lípa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.61

Varnsdorf

2.92

Arsenal Česká Lípa

1.61

Varnsdorf creates 81% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.44

creates per match

2.00

1.22

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Varnsdorf

2.44

Arsenal Česká Lípa

2.00

allows per match

Varnsdorf

1.22

Arsenal Česká Lípa

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varnsdorf+0.00on par

Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varnsdorf ↓

Arsenal Česká Lípa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Varnsdorf or draw

80%

Varnsdorf or Arsenal Česká Lípa

83%

Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa

36%

Winning margin

Varnsdorf wins by 2+

44%

Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Varnsdorf 1+ goals

94%

Varnsdorf 2+ goals

78%

Varnsdorf 3+ goals

55%

Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals

80%

Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals

48%

Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Varnsdorf (draw refunded)

76%

Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varnsdorf at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varnsdorf attack 2.44 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.92

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 2.00 + Varnsdorf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Varnsdorf scores more

64%

level

17%

Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more

20%

Varnsdorf at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Varnsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff