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Värmbols vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Värmbols
Värmbols
FT
2 – 2
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
10/17/2020Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 13Värmbols IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Värmbols43%
×Draw22%
IFK Eskilstuna35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Värmbols
1.96
IFK Eskilstuna
1.75

Värmbols creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 60 away

creates per match

Värmbols
1.51
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Värmbols
2.06
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Värmbols+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Värmbols ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Värmbols or draw
65%
Värmbols or IFK Eskilstuna
78%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
57%

Winning margin

Värmbols wins by 2+
24%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Värmbols 1+ goals
86%
Värmbols 2+ goals
58%
Värmbols 3+ goals
31%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
83%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
52%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Värmbols (draw refunded)
55%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Värmbols at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.06 · 47 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Värmbols attack 1.51 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.96

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Värmbols defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Värmbols scores more
43%
level
22%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
35%

Värmbols at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Värmbols will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Värmbols 2–2 IFK Eskilstuna

Värmbols and IFK Eskilstuna drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Värmbols IP in Katrineholm.