Varketili 2–0 Merani Martvili: Result & Stats

Varketili

FT

2 – 0

Merani Martvili

3/20/2024

Liga 3 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Varketili49%

×Draw25%

Merani Martvili26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarketiliExpected goals in this matchMerani Martvili

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.13

Varketili

1.63

Merani Martvili

1.13

Varketili creates 44% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

2.26

creates per match

1.13

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Varketili

2.26

Merani Martvili

1.13

allows per match

Varketili

1.13

Merani Martvili

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varketili+0.00on par

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varketili ↓

Merani Martvili →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Varketili or draw

74%

Varketili or Merani Martvili

75%

Draw or Merani Martvili

51%

Winning margin

Varketili wins by 2+

26%

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Varketili 1+ goals

80%

Varketili 2+ goals

48%

Varketili 3+ goals

22%

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

68%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

31%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Varketili (draw refunded)

65%

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varketili at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varketili attack 2.26 + Merani Martvili defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Merani Martvili attack 1.13 + Varketili defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Varketili scores more

49%

level

25%

Merani Martvili scores more

26%

Varketili at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Varketili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff