Varketili 1–1 Gardabani: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Varketili

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gardabani

9/5/2024

Liga 3 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Varketili66%

×Draw19%

Gardabani15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarketiliExpected goals in this matchGardabani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.97

Varketili

2.27

Gardabani

0.97

Varketili creates 134% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

2.26

creates per match

0.82

1.13

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Varketili

2.26

Gardabani

0.82

allows per match

Varketili

1.13

Gardabani

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varketili+0.00on par

Gardabani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varketili ↓

Gardabani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Varketili or draw

85%

Varketili or Gardabani

81%

Draw or Gardabani

34%

Winning margin

Varketili wins by 2+

43%

Gardabani wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Varketili 1+ goals

90%

Varketili 2+ goals

66%

Varketili 3+ goals

39%

Gardabani 1+ goals

62%

Gardabani 2+ goals

25%

Gardabani 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Varketili (draw refunded)

82%

Gardabani (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varketili at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Gardabani away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.29 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varketili attack 2.26 + Gardabani defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.27

Gardabani attack 0.82 + Varketili defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Varketili scores more

66%

level

19%

Gardabani scores more

15%

Varketili at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Varketili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff