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Varketili vs Algeti — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Varketili
Varketili
FT
2 – 1
Algeti
Algeti
8/21/2020David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Varketili55%
×Draw23%
Algeti22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varketili
1.83
Algeti
1.08

Varketili creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Varketili
1.00
Algeti
0.67

allows per match

Varketili
1.50
Algeti
2.67

finishing

Varketili+0.00on par
Algeti+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varketili ↓

Algeti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Varketili or draw
78%
Varketili or Algeti
77%
Draw or Algeti
45%

Winning margin

Varketili wins by 2+
31%
Algeti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Varketili 1+ goals
84%
Varketili 2+ goals
54%
Varketili 3+ goals
28%
Algeti 1+ goals
66%
Algeti 2+ goals
29%
Algeti 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Varketili (draw refunded)
71%
Algeti (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varketili at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Algeti away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varketili attack 1.00 + Algeti defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Algeti attack 0.67 + Varketili defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Varketili scores more
55%
level
23%
Algeti scores more
22%

Varketili at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Varketili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varketili vs Algeti

Varketili beat Algeti 2-1 in David Kipiani Cup on August 21, 2020.