Varketili II 1–5 Samgurali II: Result & Stats

Varketili II

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Samgurali II

G. Abashidze 56'

N. Tatarashvili 86'

S. Ashba 76'

B. Chkhaberidze 13', 2'

A. Tevzadze 10'

6/10/2024

David Kipiani Cup · 2nd Round35-e Skolis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Varketili II15%

×Draw15%

Samgurali II69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varketili IIExpected goals in this matchSamgurali II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

3.13

Varketili II

1.46

Samgurali II

3.13

Samgurali II creates 114% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.25

creates per match

3.00

3.25

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Varketili II

2.25

Samgurali II

3.00

allows per match

Varketili II

3.25

Samgurali II

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varketili II+0.00on par

Samgurali II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varketili II ↓

Samgurali II →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Varketili II or draw

31%

Varketili II or Samgurali II

85%

Draw or Samgurali II

85%

Winning margin

Varketili II wins by 2+

Samgurali II wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Varketili II 1+ goals

77%

Varketili II 2+ goals

43%

Varketili II 3+ goals

18%

Samgurali II 1+ goals

95%

Samgurali II 2+ goals

81%

Samgurali II 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Varketili II (draw refunded)

18%

Samgurali II (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Varketili II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Samgurali II away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Varketili II attack 2.25 + Samgurali II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Samgurali II attack 3.00 + Varketili II defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Varketili II scores more

15%

level

15%

Samgurali II scores more

69%

Samgurali II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Samgurali II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

B. Chkhaberidze

10'

A. Tevzadze

13'

B. Chkhaberidze

56'

G. Abashidze

76'

S. Ashba

86'

N. Tatarashvili

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff