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Varketili II vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi II — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Varketili II
Varketili II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
A. Shamatava 88'
S. Kiknadze 75' (pen)
L. Atskureli 43'
R. Khinchiashvili 9'
7/7/2022David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 3rd RoundAmeris Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Varketili II34%
×Draw19%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varketili II
2.33
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
2.73

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Varketili II
2.25
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
2.20

allows per match

Varketili II
3.25
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
2.40

finishing

Varketili II+0.00on par
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varketili II ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Varketili II or draw
53%
Varketili II or Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
81%
Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi II
66%

Winning margin

Varketili II wins by 2+
19%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Varketili II 1+ goals
90%
Varketili II 2+ goals
67%
Varketili II 3+ goals
41%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 1+ goals
93%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 2+ goals
75%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Varketili II (draw refunded)
42%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varketili II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varketili II attack 2.25 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.33

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II attack 2.20 + Varketili II defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Varketili II scores more
34%
level
19%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi II scores more
47%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
R. Khinchiashvili
43'
L. Atskureli
75'
S. KiknadzePenalty
88'
A. Shamatava

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varketili II vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II beat Varketili II 3-1 in David Kipiani Cup on July 7, 2022.

Goals: R. Khinchiashvili (9'), L. Atskureli (43'), S. Kiknadze (75' pen), A. Shamatava (88').

The match was played at Ameris Stadioni in Tbilisi.