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Varketili II vs Borjomi — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Varketili II
Varketili II
FT
1 – 2
Borjomi
Borjomi
5/14/2023David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Varketili II38%
×Draw20%
Borjomi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varketili II
2.13
Borjomi
2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Varketili II
2.25
Borjomi
1.25

allows per match

Varketili II
3.25
Borjomi
2.00

finishing

Varketili II+0.00on par
Borjomi+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varketili II ↓

Borjomi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Varketili II or draw
58%
Varketili II or Borjomi
80%
Draw or Borjomi
62%

Winning margin

Varketili II wins by 2+
21%
Borjomi wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Varketili II 1+ goals
88%
Varketili II 2+ goals
63%
Varketili II 3+ goals
35%
Borjomi 1+ goals
89%
Borjomi 2+ goals
65%
Borjomi 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Varketili II (draw refunded)
47%
Borjomi (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varketili II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Borjomi away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varketili II attack 2.25 + Borjomi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Borjomi attack 1.25 + Varketili II defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Varketili II scores more
38%
level
20%
Borjomi scores more
42%

Borjomi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Borjomi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varketili II vs Borjomi

Borjomi beat Varketili II 2-1 in David Kipiani Cup on May 14, 2023.