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Varginha EC vs North Esporte — Mineiro - 2 2026

Varginha EC
Varginha EC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
North Esporte
North Esporte
Unknown 18'
Unknown 27', 5'
5/20/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 5Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Varginha EC35%
×Draw33%
North Esporte32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varginha EC
0.93
North Esporte
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

creates per match

Varginha EC
0.96
North Esporte
0.76

allows per match

Varginha EC
1.00
North Esporte
0.90

finishing

Varginha EC+0.00on par
North Esporte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 73Over: 2773%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 65Yes: 3565%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varginha EC ↓

North Esporte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Varginha EC or draw
68%
Varginha EC or North Esporte
67%
Draw or North Esporte
65%

Winning margin

Varginha EC wins by 2+
13%
North Esporte wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Varginha EC 1+ goals
61%
Varginha EC 2+ goals
24%
Varginha EC 3+ goals
7%
North Esporte 1+ goals
59%
North Esporte 2+ goals
22%
North Esporte 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Varginha EC (draw refunded)
52%
North Esporte (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varginha EC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

North Esporte away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varginha EC attack 0.96 + North Esporte defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

North Esporte attack 0.76 + Varginha EC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Varginha EC scores more
35%
level
33%
North Esporte scores more
32%

Varginha EC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Varginha EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
18'
27'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Varginha EC 1 – 2 North Esporte

North Esporte beat Varginha EC 2-1 in Mineiro - 2 on May 20, 2023.

Goals: ? (5', 18', 27').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo in Varginha, Minas Gerais.