Vargas Torres 1–1 San Antonio: Result & Stats

Vargas Torres

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Antonio

J. Arana 70'

S. Minda 45'

6/19/2024

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 16Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vargas Torres51%

×Draw29%

San Antonio21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vargas TorresExpected goals in this matchSan Antonio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.72

Vargas Torres

1.31

San Antonio

0.72

Vargas Torres creates 82% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

1.36

creates per match

0.75

0.68

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Vargas Torres

1.36

San Antonio

0.75

allows per match

Vargas Torres

0.68

San Antonio

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

San Antonio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw

79%

Vargas Torres or San Antonio

71%

Draw or San Antonio

49%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

24%

San Antonio wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

73%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

38%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

14%

San Antonio 1+ goals

51%

San Antonio 2+ goals

16%

San Antonio 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

71%

San Antonio (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

San Antonio away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.36 + San Antonio defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

San Antonio attack 0.75 + Vargas Torres defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vargas Torres scores more

51%

level

29%

San Antonio scores more

21%

Vargas Torres at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

S. Minda

70'

J. Arana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff