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Vargas Torres vs Leones del Norte — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
3/27/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 3Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vargas Torres45%
×Draw31%
Leones del Norte24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vargas Torres
1.14
Leones del Norte
0.76

Vargas Torres creates 50% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Vargas Torres
1.15
Leones del Norte
0.79

allows per match

Vargas Torres
0.73
Leones del Norte
1.12

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par
Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

Leones del Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw
76%
Vargas Torres or Leones del Norte
69%
Draw or Leones del Norte
55%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+
19%
Leones del Norte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals
68%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
32%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
11%
Leones del Norte 1+ goals
53%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
18%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
65%
Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.15 + Leones del Norte defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Leones del Norte attack 0.79 + Vargas Torres defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vargas Torres scores more
45%
level
31%
Leones del Norte scores more
24%

Vargas Torres at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vargas Torres vs Leones del Norte

Vargas Torres and Leones del Norte drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Folke Anderson in Esmeraldas.