Leones del Norte 3–2 Vargas Torres: Result & Stats

Leones del Norte

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Vargas Torres

M. Luque 90'

K. Velasco 38'

I. Kestler 23'

C. Diaz 68', 7'

6/25/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 15Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Leones del Norte52%

×Draw30%

Vargas Torres17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones del NorteExpected goals in this matchVargas Torres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.57

Leones del Norte

1.23

Vargas Torres

0.57

Leones del Norte creates 116% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

1.35

creates per match

0.59

0.55

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Leones del Norte

1.35

Vargas Torres

0.59

allows per match

Leones del Norte

0.55

Vargas Torres

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Vargas Torres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw

83%

Leones del Norte or Vargas Torres

70%

Draw or Vargas Torres

48%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+

24%

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals

71%

Leones del Norte 2+ goals

35%

Leones del Norte 3+ goals

13%

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

43%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

11%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)

75%

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.35 + Vargas Torres defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Vargas Torres attack 0.59 + Leones del Norte defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leones del Norte scores more

52%

level

30%

Vargas Torres scores more

17%

Leones del Norte at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

C. Diaz

23'

I. Kestler

34'

Goal Disallowed - Foul

38'

K. Velasco

68'

C. Diaz

90'

M. Luque

Leones

Vargas

Manager: J. Zubeldía

Manager: J. Estacio