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Vargas Torres vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
J. Villacrés 55'
4/10/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 5Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vargas Torres48%
×Draw29%
Gualaceo SC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vargas Torres
1.25
Gualaceo SC
0.77

Vargas Torres creates 62% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 110 away

creates per match

Vargas Torres
1.15
Gualaceo SC
0.82

allows per match

Vargas Torres
0.73
Gualaceo SC
1.35

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw
77%
Vargas Torres or Gualaceo SC
71%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
52%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+
22%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals
71%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
36%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
13%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
54%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
18%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
68%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.15 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gualaceo SC attack 0.82 + Vargas Torres defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vargas Torres scores more
48%
level
29%
Gualaceo SC scores more
23%

Vargas Torres at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
J. Villacrés

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vargas Torres vs Gualaceo SC

Vargas Torres beat Gualaceo SC 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on April 10, 2024.

Goals: J. Villacrés (55').

The match was played at Estadio Folke Anderson in Esmeraldas.