Gualaceo SC 1–0 Vargas Torres: Result & Stats

Gualaceo SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vargas Torres

J. Folleco 36'

9/8/2024

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 28Estadio Municipal Jorge Andrade Cantos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gualaceo SC47%

×Draw31%

Vargas Torres22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualaceo SCExpected goals in this matchVargas Torres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.70

Gualaceo SC

1.17

Vargas Torres

0.70

Gualaceo SC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

1.23

creates per match

0.59

0.80

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Gualaceo SC

1.23

Vargas Torres

0.59

allows per match

Gualaceo SC

0.80

Vargas Torres

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Vargas Torres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw

78%

Gualaceo SC or Vargas Torres

69%

Draw or Vargas Torres

53%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

21%

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

69%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

33%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

11%

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

50%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

16%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

68%

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.23 + Vargas Torres defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Vargas Torres attack 0.59 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more

47%

level

31%

Vargas Torres scores more

22%

Gualaceo SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

J. Folleco

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff