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Vargas Torres vs 9 de Octubre — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
D. Garcia 37'
9/14/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 30Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vargas Torres44%
×Draw30%
9 de Octubre25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vargas Torres
1.17
9 de Octubre
0.80

Vargas Torres creates 46% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Vargas Torres
1.15
9 de Octubre
0.88

allows per match

Vargas Torres
0.73
9 de Octubre
1.20

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par
9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

9 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw
75%
Vargas Torres or 9 de Octubre
70%
Draw or 9 de Octubre
56%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+
19%
9 de Octubre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals
69%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
33%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
11%
9 de Octubre 1+ goals
55%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
19%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
64%
9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.15 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

9 de Octubre attack 0.88 + Vargas Torres defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vargas Torres scores more
44%
level
30%
9 de Octubre scores more
25%

Vargas Torres at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
D. Garcia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vargas Torres vs 9 de Octubre

Vargas Torres beat 9 de Octubre 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 14, 2023.

Goals: D. Garcia (37').

The match was played at Estadio Folke Anderson in Esmeraldas.