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9 de Octubre vs Vargas Torres — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
9/26/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 31Estadio Alejandro Ponce Noboa de Fertisa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

9 de Octubre51%
×Draw29%
Vargas Torres20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

9 de Octubre
1.28
Vargas Torres
0.68

9 de Octubre creates 88% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 27 away

creates per match

9 de Octubre
1.45
Vargas Torres
0.59

allows per match

9 de Octubre
0.76
Vargas Torres
1.11

finishing

9 de Octubre+0.00on par
Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Octubre ↓

Vargas Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

9 de Octubre or draw
80%
9 de Octubre or Vargas Torres
71%
Draw or Vargas Torres
49%

Winning margin

9 de Octubre wins by 2+
24%
Vargas Torres wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

9 de Octubre 1+ goals
72%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
37%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
14%
Vargas Torres 1+ goals
49%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
15%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
72%
Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Octubre at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Octubre attack 1.45 + Vargas Torres defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Vargas Torres attack 0.59 + 9 de Octubre defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

9 de Octubre scores more
51%
level
29%
Vargas Torres scores more
20%

9 de Octubre at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "9 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: 9 de Octubre 0–0 Vargas Torres

9 de Octubre and Vargas Torres drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Ponce Noboa de Fertisa in Guayaquil.