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Varea vs Villegas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Villegas
Villegas
1/4/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 19Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Varea76%
×Draw15%
Villegas9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
2.59
Villegas
0.75

Varea creates 245% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 46 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
Villegas
0.57

allows per match

Varea
0.93
Villegas
3.04

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Villegas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Varea or draw
91%
Varea or Villegas
85%
Draw or Villegas
24%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
55%
Villegas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
92%
Varea 2+ goals
73%
Varea 3+ goals
47%
Villegas 1+ goals
53%
Villegas 2+ goals
17%
Villegas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
90%
Villegas (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.59

Villegas attack 0.57 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Varea scores more
76%
level
15%
Villegas scores more
9%

Varea at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Varea 5–0 Villegas

Varea beat Villegas 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Varea.