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Varea vs Tedeón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Tedeón
Tedeón
3/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Varea68%
×Draw19%
Tedeón13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
2.20
Tedeón
0.85

Varea creates 159% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
Tedeón
0.78

allows per match

Varea
0.93
Tedeón
2.24

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Tedeón+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Tedeón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Varea or draw
87%
Varea or Tedeón
81%
Draw or Tedeón
32%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
44%
Tedeón wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
89%
Varea 2+ goals
64%
Varea 3+ goals
37%
Tedeón 1+ goals
57%
Tedeón 2+ goals
21%
Tedeón 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
84%
Tedeón (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Tedeón away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Tedeón defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.20

Tedeón attack 0.78 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Varea scores more
68%
level
19%
Tedeón scores more
13%

Varea at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varea vs Tedeón

Varea beat Tedeón 8-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.