Varea 3–1 River Ebro: Result & Stats

Varea

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

River Ebro

12/1/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 13Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Varea61%

×Draw21%

River Ebro18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VareaExpected goals in this matchRiver Ebro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.01

Varea

2.04

River Ebro

1.01

Varea creates 102% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

2.15

creates per match

1.09

0.93

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Varea

2.15

River Ebro

1.09

allows per match

Varea

0.93

River Ebro

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varea+0.00on par

River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

River Ebro →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Varea or draw

82%

Varea or River Ebro

79%

Draw or River Ebro

39%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+

37%

River Ebro wins by 2+

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals

87%

Varea 2+ goals

60%

Varea 3+ goals

33%

River Ebro 1+ goals

64%

River Ebro 2+ goals

27%

River Ebro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)

77%

River Ebro (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.04

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Varea scores more

61%

level

21%

River Ebro scores more

18%

Varea at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff