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Varea vs Oyonesa — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Varea
Varea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oyonesa
Oyonesa
E. Ubis 5'
6/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Varea37%
×Draw26%
Oyonesa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
1.36
Oyonesa
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Varea
1.40
Oyonesa
1.33

allows per match

Varea
1.40
Oyonesa
1.33

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Oyonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Oyonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Varea or draw
63%
Varea or Oyonesa
74%
Draw or Oyonesa
63%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
17%
Oyonesa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
74%
Varea 2+ goals
39%
Varea 3+ goals
16%
Oyonesa 1+ goals
74%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
39%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
50%
Oyonesa (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Oyonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 1.40 + Oyonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Oyonesa attack 1.33 + Varea defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Varea scores more
37%
level
26%
Oyonesa scores more
37%

Varea at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
E. Ubis
89'
Josito

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varea vs Oyonesa

Varea beat Oyonesa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 8, 2025.

Goals: E. Ubis (5').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.