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Varea vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arnedo
Arnedo
10/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Varea47%
×Draw24%
Arnedo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
1.67
Arnedo
1.28

Varea creates 30% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 95 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
Arnedo
1.63

allows per match

Varea
0.93
Arnedo
1.20

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Arnedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Varea or draw
71%
Varea or Arnedo
76%
Draw or Arnedo
53%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
24%
Arnedo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
81%
Varea 2+ goals
50%
Varea 3+ goals
23%
Arnedo 1+ goals
72%
Arnedo 2+ goals
37%
Arnedo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
61%
Arnedo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Arnedo attack 1.63 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Varea scores more
47%
level
24%
Arnedo scores more
29%

Varea at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Varea 1–2 Arnedo

Arnedo beat Varea 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.