Varea 2–1 Alberite: Result & Stats

Varea

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Alberite

5/12/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 34Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Varea70%

×Draw17%

Alberite12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VareaExpected goals in this matchAlberite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.89

Varea

2.38

Alberite

0.89

Varea creates 167% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 46 away

2.15

creates per match

0.85

0.93

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Varea

2.15

Alberite

0.85

allows per match

Varea

0.93

Alberite

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varea+0.00on par

Alberite+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Alberite →

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Varea or draw

88%

Varea or Alberite

83%

Draw or Alberite

30%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+

47%

Alberite wins by 2+

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals

91%

Varea 2+ goals

68%

Varea 3+ goals

42%

Alberite 1+ goals

59%

Alberite 2+ goals

22%

Alberite 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)

85%

Alberite (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Alberite away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Alberite defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.38

Alberite attack 0.85 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Varea scores more

70%

level

17%

Alberite scores more

12%

Varea at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff