Vardar Skopje 3–1 Tikveš: Result & Stats

Vardar Skopje

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tikveš

11/9/2025

First League · Round 13Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Vardar Skopje46%

×Draw26%

Tikveš28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchTikveš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.09

Vardar Skopje

1.48

Tikveš

1.09

Vardar Skopje creates 36% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 80 away

1.56

creates per match

1.05

1.13

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

1.56

Tikveš

1.05

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

1.13

Tikveš

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Tikveš+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Tikveš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

72%

Vardar Skopje or Tikveš

74%

Draw or Tikveš

54%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

23%

Tikveš wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

77%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

43%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

19%

Tikveš 1+ goals

66%

Tikveš 2+ goals

30%

Tikveš 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

62%

Tikveš (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Tikveš away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.56 + Tikveš defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tikveš attack 1.05 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

46%

level

26%

Tikveš scores more

28%

Vardar Skopje at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff