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Vardar Skopje vs Shkendija — First League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shkendija
Shkendija
3/14/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Trening centar Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Vardar Skopje35%
×Draw26%
Shkendija39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
1.27
Shkendija
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 105 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
1.56
Shkendija
1.60

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
1.13
Shkendija
0.97

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Shkendija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
61%
Vardar Skopje or Shkendija
74%
Draw or Shkendija
65%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
15%
Shkendija wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
72%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
36%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
14%
Shkendija 1+ goals
74%
Shkendija 2+ goals
39%
Shkendija 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
47%
Shkendija (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.56 + Shkendija defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Shkendija attack 1.60 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
35%
level
26%
Shkendija scores more
39%

Shkendija at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vardar Skopje vs Shkendija

Vardar Skopje and Shkendija drew 1-1 in First League on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Trening centar Petar Miloševski in Skopje.