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Vardar Skopje vs Pelister — Second League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pelister
Pelister
Unknown 41'
5/9/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 29Stadion Boris Trajkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vardar Skopje50%
×Draw25%
Pelister25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
1.59
Pelister
1.04

Vardar Skopje creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 38 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
2.18
Pelister
1.68

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
0.41
Pelister
1.00

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Pelister →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
75%
Vardar Skopje or Pelister
75%
Draw or Pelister
50%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
26%
Pelister wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
80%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
47%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
21%
Pelister 1+ goals
65%
Pelister 2+ goals
28%
Pelister 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
67%
Pelister (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Pelister away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 2.18 + Pelister defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Pelister attack 1.68 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
50%
level
25%
Pelister scores more
25%

Vardar Skopje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Vardar Skopje 1–1 Pelister

Vardar Skopje and Pelister drew 1-1 in Second League on May 9, 2023.

Goals: ? (41').

The match was played at Stadion Boris Trajkovski in Skopje.