Pelister 1–2 Vardar Skopje: Result & Stats

Pelister

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Vardar Skopje

11/5/2025

First League · Round 12Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Pelister35%

×Draw30%

Vardar Skopje35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelisterExpected goals in this matchVardar Skopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.04

Pelister

1.05

Vardar Skopje

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 78 away

0.98

creates per match

1.14

0.95

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Pelister

0.98

Vardar Skopje

1.14

allows per match

Pelister

0.95

Vardar Skopje

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Vardar Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pelister or draw

65%

Pelister or Vardar Skopje

70%

Draw or Vardar Skopje

65%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+

14%

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals

65%

Pelister 2+ goals

28%

Pelister 3+ goals

9%

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

65%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

28%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)

50%

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 0.98 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Pelister defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Pelister scores more

35%

level

30%

Vardar Skopje scores more

35%

Pelister at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff