Vardar Skopje 2–2 Pelister: Result & Stats

Vardar Skopje

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Pelister

M. Mirchevski 48'

F. Petkovski 3'

B. Manevski 80'

I. Pejaković 22'

2/21/2021

First League · Round 19Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Vardar Skopje55%

×Draw24%

Pelister20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchPelister

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.91

Vardar Skopje

1.68

Pelister

0.91

Vardar Skopje creates 85% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 68 away

1.71

creates per match

0.76

1.06

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

1.71

Pelister

0.76

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

1.06

Pelister

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Pelister →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

80%

Vardar Skopje or Pelister

76%

Draw or Pelister

45%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

30%

Pelister wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

81%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

50%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

24%

Pelister 1+ goals

60%

Pelister 2+ goals

23%

Pelister 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

73%

Pelister (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Pelister away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.71 + Pelister defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.68

Pelister attack 0.76 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

55%

level

24%

Pelister scores more

20%

Vardar Skopje at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

F. Petkovski

22'

I. Pejaković

37'

P. Guguljanov

46'

B. Manevski← D. Razmoski

48'

M. Mirchevski

51'

I. Pejakovic

56'

О. Goudiaby← M. Talevski

57'

R. Ilijovski← K. Nikolovski

61'

B. Spirkoski

61'

D. Velkovski← P. Guguljanov

70'

S. Lazarevic

74'

E. Partalko← M. Mirchevski

74'

L. Fazliju← F. Boshkovski

76'

V. Kocoski

80'

B. Manevski

87'

G. Stojanovski← D. Blazhevski

Vardar

Pelister

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: N. Ilievski

61'▲D. Velkovski←▼P. Guguljanov

74'▲E. Partalko←▼M. Mirchevski

87'▲G. Stojanovski←▼D. Blazhevski

Vardar Skopje substitutes

VelkovskiPartalkoStojanovski

Manager: D. Kapinkovski

46'▲B. Manevski←▼D. Razmoski

56'▲О. Goudiaby←▼M. Talevski

57'▲R. Ilijovski←▼K. Nikolovski

74'▲L. Fazliju←▼F. Boshkovski

Pelister substitutes

ManevskiGoudiabyIlijovskiFazliju

First League: Vardar Skopje 2–2 Pelister

Vardar Skopje and Pelister drew 2-2 in First League on February 21, 2021.

Goals: F. Petkovski (3'), I. Pejaković (22'), M. Mirchevski (48'), B. Manevski (80').

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.

Vardar Skopje vs Pelister — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Vardar Skopje 2–2 Pelister