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Vardar Skopje vs Karaorman — Second League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Karaorman
Karaorman
3/12/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Stadion Boris Trajkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vardar Skopje74%
×Draw18%
Karaorman9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
2.15
Karaorman
0.58

Vardar Skopje creates 271% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
2.07
Karaorman
0.70

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
0.47
Karaorman
2.23

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Karaorman+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Karaorman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
91%
Vardar Skopje or Karaorman
82%
Draw or Karaorman
26%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
49%
Karaorman wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
88%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
63%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
36%
Karaorman 1+ goals
44%
Karaorman 2+ goals
12%
Karaorman 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
89%
Karaorman (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Karaorman away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 2.07 + Karaorman defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.15

Karaorman attack 0.70 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
74%
level
18%
Karaorman scores more
9%

Vardar Skopje at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Vardar Skopje 4–1 Karaorman

Vardar Skopje beat Karaorman 4-1 in Second League on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Boris Trajkovski in Skopje.