Vardar Skopje 2–0 Detonit Plachkovica

Vardar Skopje

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Detonit Plachkovica

3/4/2023

Second League · Round 18Stadion Boris Trajkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vardar Skopje56%

×Draw24%

Detonit Plachkovica19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchDetonit Plachkovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.87

Vardar Skopje

1.67

Detonit Plachkovica

0.87

Vardar Skopje creates 92% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 60 away

2.18

creates per match

1.33

0.41

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

2.18

Detonit Plachkovica

1.33

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

0.41

Detonit Plachkovica

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

81%

Vardar Skopje or Detonit Plachkovica

76%

Draw or Detonit Plachkovica

44%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

31%

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

81%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

50%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

23%

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals

58%

Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals

22%

Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

74%

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 2.18 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.67

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.33 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

56%

level

24%

Detonit Plachkovica scores more

19%

Vardar Skopje at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff