Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vardar Skopje vs Borec — Second League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Borec
Borec
9/10/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 4Stadion Boris Trajkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vardar Skopje85%
×Draw12%
Borec3%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
2.59
Borec
0.36

Vardar Skopje creates 619% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
2.18
Borec
0.32

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
0.41
Borec
3.00

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Borec+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Borec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
97%
Vardar Skopje or Borec
88%
Draw or Borec
15%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
64%
Borec wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
92%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
73%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
47%
Borec 1+ goals
30%
Borec 2+ goals
5%
Borec 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
96%
Borec (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Borec away — creates 0.32, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 2.18 + Borec defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.59

Borec attack 0.32 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
85%
level
12%
Borec scores more
3%

Vardar Skopje at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Vardar Skopje 6–0 Borec

Vardar Skopje beat Borec 6-0 in Second League on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Boris Trajkovski in Skopje.