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Vardar Skopje vs Akademija Pandev — First League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
CANC
00:00
Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
3/21/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Vardar Skopje50%
×Draw25%
Akademija Pandev24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
1.56
Akademija Pandev
1.00

Vardar Skopje creates 56% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 110 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
1.71
Akademija Pandev
0.95

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
1.06
Akademija Pandev
1.42

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Akademija Pandev+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Akademija Pandev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
76%
Vardar Skopje or Akademija Pandev
75%
Draw or Akademija Pandev
50%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
26%
Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
79%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
46%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
21%
Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
63%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
26%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
67%
Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Akademija Pandev away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.71 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Akademija Pandev attack 0.95 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
50%
level
25%
Akademija Pandev scores more
24%

Vardar Skopje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vardar Skopje face Akademija Pandev (First League)

First League returns with Vardar Skopje hosting Akademija Pandev. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vardar Skopje host Akademija Pandev at Toše Proeski Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.