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Akademija Pandev vs Vardar Skopje — Cup 2020

Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
4/23/2025CupCup · Semi-finalsStadion Blagoj Istatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Akademija Pandev53%
×Draw26%
Vardar Skopje21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademija Pandev
1.53
Vardar Skopje
0.85

Akademija Pandev creates 80% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Akademija Pandev
2.67
Vardar Skopje
1.20

allows per match

Akademija Pandev
0.50
Vardar Skopje
0.40

finishing

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademija Pandev ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akademija Pandev or draw
79%
Akademija Pandev or Vardar Skopje
74%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
47%

Winning margin

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
28%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
78%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
45%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
20%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
57%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
21%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
72%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademija Pandev at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademija Pandev attack 2.67 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vardar Skopje attack 1.20 + Akademija Pandev defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Akademija Pandev scores more
53%
level
26%
Vardar Skopje scores more
21%

Akademija Pandev at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademija Pandev vs Vardar Skopje

Akademija Pandev and Vardar Skopje drew 1-1 in Cup on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Blagoj Istatov in Strumica.