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Vardar Negotino vs Pobeda — Second League 2019

Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Pobeda
Pobeda
11/4/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Cvaj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vardar Negotino51%
×Draw24%
Pobeda24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Negotino
1.66
Pobeda
1.06

Vardar Negotino creates 57% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 67 away

creates per match

Vardar Negotino
1.11
Pobeda
0.69

allows per match

Vardar Negotino
1.44
Pobeda
2.21

finishing

Vardar Negotino+0.00on par
Pobeda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Negotino ↓

Pobeda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vardar Negotino or draw
76%
Vardar Negotino or Pobeda
76%
Draw or Pobeda
49%

Winning margin

Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
27%
Pobeda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
81%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
49%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
23%
Pobeda 1+ goals
65%
Pobeda 2+ goals
29%
Pobeda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
68%
Pobeda (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Negotino at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Pobeda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.21 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Negotino attack 1.11 + Pobeda defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.66

Pobeda attack 0.69 + Vardar Negotino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vardar Negotino scores more
51%
level
24%
Pobeda scores more
24%

Vardar Negotino at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vardar Negotino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Vardar Negotino 3–2 Pobeda

Vardar Negotino beat Pobeda 3-2 in Second League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Cvaj Arena in Negotino.