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Pobeda vs Vardar Negotino — Second League 2019

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
4/5/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 23Stadion Goce Delčev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Pobeda47%
×Draw22%
Vardar Negotino30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
1.88
Vardar Negotino
1.47

Pobeda creates 28% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

creates per match

Pobeda
1.15
Vardar Negotino
1.24

allows per match

Pobeda
1.70
Vardar Negotino
2.60

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Vardar Negotino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
70%
Pobeda or Vardar Negotino
78%
Draw or Vardar Negotino
53%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
26%
Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
85%
Pobeda 2+ goals
56%
Pobeda 3+ goals
29%
Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
77%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
43%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
61%
Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

Vardar Negotino away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.15 + Vardar Negotino defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

Vardar Negotino attack 1.24 + Pobeda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pobeda scores more
47%
level
22%
Vardar Negotino scores more
30%

Pobeda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pobeda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pobeda vs Vardar Negotino

Vardar Negotino beat Pobeda 1-0 in Second League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Goce Delčev in Prilep.